ABSTRACT Objective To develop and validate a high-risk predictive model that identifies, at least, one common adverse event in older population: early readmission (up to 30 days after discharge), long hospital stays (10 days or more) or in-hospital deaths. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study including patients aged 60 years or older (n=340) admitted at a 630-beds tertiary hospital, located in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A predictive model of high-risk indication was developed by analyzing logistical regression models. This model prognostic capacity was assessed by measuring accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve with 95% confidence intervals were also obtained to assess the discriminatory power of the model. Internal validation of the prognostic model was performed in a separate sample (n=168). Results Statistically significant predictors were identified, such as current Barthel Index, number of medications in use, presence of diabetes mellitus, difficulty chewing or swallowing, extensive surgery, and dementia. The study observed discrimination model acceptance in the construction sample 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.83) and good calibration. The characteristics of the validation samples were similar, and the receiver operating characteristic curve area was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.598-0.776). We could assess an older patient’s adverse health events during hospitalization after admission. Conclusion A predictive model with acceptable discrimination was obtained, with satisfactory results for early readmission (30 days), long hospital stays (10 days), or in-hospital death.

Vítimas de trauma craniencefálico (TCE) freqüentemente alcançam independência nas atividades de vida diária, mas encontram limitações quanto à participação na comunidade ou no trabalho produtivo. Este estudo visou verificar o índice de retorno, após programa de reabilitação, à produtividade (estudo e/ou trabalho) de sujeitos que haviam tido TCE. Participaram 60 sujeitos deambuladores comunitários (média de idade 30,4 anos, mínima 18, máxima 53), selecionados dentre os prontuários de pacientes com diagnóstico de TCE que freqüentaram o programa de reabilitação entre 2002 a 2004 no Setor de Fisioterapia Adulto da Associação de Assistência à Criança Deficiente (AACD) em São Paulo, SP. Em entrevista, foi aplicado um questionário elaborado pela equipe da AACD. Os participantes - 51 homens e 9 mulheres - tinham sofrido em sua maioria (95%) trauma grave. Os resultados mostram que 71,7% dos participantes retomaram atividades ocupacionais ou escolares, mas apenas 38,3% estavam trabalhando por ocasião da entrevista. Embora sem significância estatística, o tempo decorrido entre o trauma e o início da reabilitação parece estar associado ao retorno à produtividade. O nível de escolaridade prévio ao trauma mostrou ter influência (p<0,01) no retorno à produtividade, alcançado por uma boa parte dos sujeitos que sofreram TCE.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) survivors are frequently independent regarding daily life activities, but often face limitations concerning community participation or productive work. This study aimed at determining the rate of return to productivity (studying or working) of subjects having suffered TBI. Sixty walking TBI patients (mean age 30.4, range 18 to 53 years old) were selected by chart review of TBI patients who attended a rehabilitation program between 2002 and 2004 in AACD, São Paulo, and were interviewed to answer a questionnaire. Participants - 51 men, 9 women - had mostly (95%) undergone severe trauma. Results show that 71.7% of the patients returned to productivity (but only 38.3% were effectively working at the time of the interview). Though with no statistical significance, the time lag between the trauma and the onset of rehabilitation seems to be associated to social adjustment. The educational level previous to the trauma was shown to influence return to productivity, reached by a good part of TBI survivors.